Recession Trends: is consumer behaviour undergoing long-term change? Wednesday 11th March 2009

On yesterday’s Today Programme, Matt Close, Marketing Director in Home & Personal Care at Unilever, described how the recession has so far impacted on consumer behaviour in general, and the differences seen in sales of Unilever products.

With our own research showing how consumers are changing behaviour, are we on the cusp of a change in consumer behaviour for the longer term?

This recession is unlike any other experienced in nearly 100 years. In the last 8 months, we have seen consumers change behaviour very quickly, exposing how weak and dependent some of the trends were on consumer confidence and spending power.

According to Matt Close, Unilever are experiencing two different underlying trends with their products, which can be summarised as “making from scratch” and “minimising waste”.

‘Making from Scratch’
Every celebrity chef must be pleased to see consumers increase the frequency of cooking at home, although for some it’s at the expense of consumers visiting their own chains. Our clients are all seeing the growth in staples and ingredient products such as cook-in-sauces, stock, tinned produce and semi-prepared ingredients. Unilever claim that spreads are also growing as consumers make more pack lunches.

It takes a long time for a change in behaviour to become permanent, and many psychologists argue that it takes at least 6 weeks of undertaking that change for it to become permanent. With consumers making packed lunches and cooking from scratch at home for several months, this could be a trend which could grow even as the economy grows.

‘Minimising Waste’
Care for the environment was the centre stage of many brands strategies for the past 2-3 years. Fair Trade and Organics led the way and Carbon Footprint was looking like it would make a big impact. However, with consumers spending less, they are also managing what they put into the dustbin better, and keeping an eye on environmental issues, when they can afford it. This is manifesting itself in two different ways:

1. 20% more consumers using shopping lists
The shopping list has returned, with consumers being more methodical about what they buy. Meals and lunches are being planned better, and consumers are more focused on buying what is required to fulfil these needs and minimise waste (Feeding Yourself, not the Dustbin!)

2. Constant Top-Up Shopping
TNS data shows that consumers are shopping more frequently, with 1 extra visit to the shops a month. Unilever claim a big rise in shopping twice a week. Both of these figures show a fundamental change in consumer behaviour, with consumers using more stores, more often to find the best deals, but also to buy products on a more short-term basis. Consumers are adopting the ‘Just in Time’ strategies used in product distribution in their own homes, buying products when needed and not for the future.

Interestingly, Unilever has seen waste management manifest itself in consumers taking more showers and fewer baths. Delivering a luxury shower experience is high on the agenda in personal care!

Will consumers return to pre-recession behaviour?

Of the trends highlighted here, it is possible that some of these will recede once consumers are on a better financial footing. However, some are likely to have ramifications for the foreseeable future and should be considered in future NPD programmes.

Waste management and more frequent shopping trips seem to be trends that will be with us for some time. Shoppers are becoming less loyal, are using a wider variety of stores and are shopping more in top-up mode. Examining how you can tap into the consumers ‘Just in Time’ shopping behaviour could provide some big wins going forward.

The Oxford Research Agency works with many leading brands to develop and enhance their products, packs, price, concepts and launch strategies for new brands. To find out more, visit www.tora.co.uk, or drop Chris Sinclair a line at chris.sinclair@tora.co.uk